After a brief overview of the main spatial and historical trends in the settlement of Quebec, this report discusses the connections between the dynamics of urban and interregional demographics. The post-war baby boom is then examined from the perspective of the scope of the fluctuations in the birth rate and the number of births before and after the baby boom, in order to clearly explain the medium- and longer-term impacts of this phenomenon on the age structure of Qubec's population and the trends that affect it. These trends and their impact on the demand for transport are then scrutinized by cross-analyzing demographic statistics and data pertaining to driver's license holders, broken down according to gender and age group. Bydemonstrating that the cohorts of baby-boomers reaching adulthood have swelled the number of potential drivers, this analysis sheds light on a major contributing factor to the very sharp increase in traffic that has been seen in recent years, despite the fact that demographic growth has taperedoff significantly. Looking into the future, the aging of these cohorts ofbaby-boomers will continue to be the predominant demographic phenomenon, and the available forecasts lead to the conclusion that the population trend of concentration in the southwest of the province will likely persist. The report concludes with the determination that this concentration is notlikely to produce any tangible benefits in terms of transportation demandfrom the aging population, because the regions where the traffic load is heaviest should continue to grow, and should be the least affected by the aging. For the covering abstract see ITRD E139491.
Samenvatting