From three case studies (Montreal, Puebla, Marrakech), the paper addresses the question of the evolution of motorisation more globally, at the level of large areas in the world (North vs South) and attempts to identify structural vs. behavioural factors of motorisation increase, by mode, at the horizon 2025. A simplified long-term demographic model is proposed of travel demand by mode which leads to three main conclusions: (1) the presence of demographic multipliers in the evolution of motorisation, which will accentuate the impact of changes in behaviour; (2) even though health problems due to motorisation will inevitably be concentrated in large megalopolises, the more global environmental effects of motorisation such as the global warming will be generated mainly in mid-sized cities of the South; and (3) a large part of the growth in motorisation will come from the motorised two wheels which, too often, are neglected.
Samenvatting