Design of major urban junctions : accident prediction models and empirical comparisons. Reprint of European Commission research documentation, Safety Standards for Road Design and Redesign SAFESTAR work package 7.

In urban areas, about 50 per cent of the accidents occur at junctions. Many of these accidents are serious and involve a high percentage of pedestrians and cyclists. It is an aid for the road authorities in their planning to be able to estimate the "normal" number of accidents and casualties at junctions of various types. This knowledge can be used to judge whether a junction needs to be improved from the road safety aspect, which junction type is the safest and the size of the benefit in relation to the cost of improvement. The purpose of this study was partly to compare prediction models, primarily for injury accidents, developed in the various countries participating in WP 7 and partly to determine how the predicted values obtained in one or more of the countries agree with the empirical outcome for other countries. The scope of the study included junctions on "routes for through traffic and radial roads" in urban areas with 50,000-200,000 inhabitants. The results indicate that there are certain possibilities of using the prediction models produced in one country also for other countries, at least for comparing the safety of cars for different junction types. Prediction models for accidents involving pedestrians and cyclists should be improved. (Author/publisher)