This article identifies the main determinants of air travel growth focusing on drivers and impeders. Major drivers of air travel growth are increased personal incomes combined with reduced real airfares, the latter furthered by airline marketing strategies and government subsidies to the aviation industry. Other drivers are increasing market liberalisation and globalisation of manufacture, trade, personal relations and economic and political systems, as well as changing geography, population growth and migration. Working structures and changing age- and wealth distribution in the population also play a role, as well as changes in social norms and values and individual needs, wants and desires. Future policies for impeding air travel growth may aim at reducing growth in personal incomes while increasing real airfares, limiting the expansion of aviation's socio-technical system and setting up per capita quotas for air travel. Promotion of alternative lifestyles, as well as restrictions to globalisation and market forces may also prove useful in the longer term. (A)
Samenvatting