A diversion model is presented that estimates high-speed rail passenger use. It is applicable to the identification of corridors that would be likely to support such service and to the determination of whether previously proposed high-speed rail service offers sufficient potential to justify conducting detailed feasibility studies. The potential market for high-speed rail service is estimated first by stratifying intercity trips on each non-rail mode by termination point (cbd or non-cbd), by trip purpose (business or non-business), and by group size for automobile trips. The characteristics of the resulting market segments are then analyzed by using travel time and cost data for high-speed rail and each competing mode to determine whether each market segment is completely divertible, possibly divertible, or non-divertible to high-speed rail service. The diversion model provided satisfactory results in a concept study of high-speed rail service in 3 travel corridors within New York state. This technique is simple to understand and apply; it does not have to be calibrated in the traditional manner, and it can be applied by using available travel data. /author/
Samenvatting