An extensive body of literature addresses the income elasticity of road traffic, in which income is typically treated as a homogenous quantity. Here we report evidence of heterogeneity in cross-sectional estimates of the elasticity of vehicle-kilometres of travel (VKT) with respect to income, when household income is disaggregated on the basis of income source. The results are generally intuitive, and show that the income elasticity of road traffic is not homogeneous as is typically specified in transport planning models. We show that in a number of circumstances the elasticity with respect to aggregate household income is of the opposite sign in comparison to more refined estimates of elasticity disaggregated by income source. Neglecting the elemental effects could result in misleading results affecting practical infrastructure-investment and policy decisions, particularly as the mix of income sources shifts (e.g. if, as society ages, pension income increases as a share of all income). These results are of interest to both researchers of travel demand and designers of future travel survey instruments; the latter group must decide how to generate data about respondents’ income. Current expert guidance is to collect a single estimate of aggregate income at the household level. Future travel survey design choices will bound the analyses that can be supported by the resulting survey data, and therefore methodological research to re-visit the trade-offs associated with such choices is warranted. (Author/publisher)
Samenvatting