With a number of developments from the recent past in mind, an attempt is made to formulate some prophecies and forecasts on travel behaviour in the thirty years to come. Possible developments in technology, society and individual realization are characterized. Some older scenarios and images describing the present time are reviewed in order to gain more confidence about this picture but also to learn about the relativity of long-term predictions. A brief comparison with some recent forecasts for the next decades has been made. Some trends in travel behaviour and socio-demographic determinants of residents in the Amsterdam agglomeration are analysed, using survey data from the last 15 years. As a result of this exercise, suppositions are made about mobility development towards the year 2030. The main suppositions are: (1) people's home will be the multimedia terminal of the world; (2) technology will be of great help to preserve accessibility by means of intelligent transport systems; (3) travel however has to be planned and reserved in advance in most cases; and (4) mobility will be spread over 24 hours of the day, seven days a week, due to demographic and economic developments. (A)
Samenvatting