The driver demerit point systems in Ontario as a long- term predictor of collisions.

Driver records of a cohort of Ontario drivers, originally at five demerit point levels, for 4½ years are followed. These originally at higher levels had consistently higher conviction and collision rates in nine subsequent six moths periods The occurrence of any conviction was more strongly convictions associated with demerit points. The simple frequency of convictions seems to be the most promising predictor of future collisions.