This Information Sheet presents an estimate of the number of drivers licences in Australia from 1922 to 2016. Also included are estimates of drivers licences in each Australian State and Territory from 1922 to 2016. Long-term trends in licences per person, both Australia-wide and in each State/Territory, are shown to be in the form of saturating logistic curves. These are modelled, first for Australia in aggregate, and then for each State/Territory. The models allow forecasts, which are shown to be almost identical for the Australia-wide model and for the aggregation of the eight State/Territory models. The saturating curves, although very regular, hide divergent trends in licence-holding by different age groups, as Victorian licence data shows, with declines in the younger age group being balanced by increases in the older age groups. The resulting stability of the logistic models means that State and Territory Governments, along with the Federal Government, have a good basis for projecting the number of drivers licenced to use the road systems (lacking any unforeseen disruptions to the per person licence-holding or population trends). (Author/publisher)
Samenvatting