This report examines the relationship between land development patterns and vehicle miles travelled (VMT) in the United States to assess whether petroleum use, and by extension greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, could be reduced by changes in the design of development patterns. The report estimates the contributions that changes in residential and mixed-use development patterns and transit investments could make in reducing VMT by 2030 and 2050, and the impact this could have in meeting future transportation-related GHG reduction goals. This report is presented in six chapters. Chapter 1 provides an introduction. Chapter 2 describes trends in land development at the national and metropolitan area scales and also within metropolitan areas, particularly changes in population and employment densities and their implications for travel. Chapter 3 examines the empirical evidence on the relationship between the built environment and VMT by reviewing the enormous literature that has developed on the topic over the last two decades. Chapter 4 helps set the stage by projecting how much new construction might be expected in the coming decades to provide perspective on the numbers of residences and workplaces that could be influenced by more compact development strategies. Chapter 5 applies the results from the earlier chapters to develop scenarios for estimating the extent to which these strategies might reduce VMT and related energy consumption and CO2 emissions by 2030 and 2050, and examines the plausibility of reaching the development densities implicit in these scenarios, an area of disagreement among committee members. The chapter also considers other closely related benefits of more compact development, such as improved residential energy efficiency from increasing multifamily housing units or developing housing on smaller lots, as well as the costs of compact development. Chapter 6 presents the committee’s recommendations for policy and research. (Author/publisher) Commissioned papers used by the committee to help develop Special Report 298 are available online at http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/sr/sr298appendixb.pdf. A four page summary of and a press release on the report is also available online at http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/sr/sr298summary.pdf and http://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/newsitem.aspx?RecordID=12747.
Samenvatting