This paper looks at the history of transport and at its future. Trends show that average distance travelled per day has risen as has speed. People can afford to buy faster transport modes. The conclusion drawn is that influencing the door-to-door travel speed will influence total mobility and modal choice: therefore public transport is only chosen first in urban centres where congestion slows the car. Air travel is likely to be the dominant transport mode in the future. Freight transport growth is linked to economic growth but also to changes in logistics. The four driving forces identified are population growth, income growth, cost reduction in production and distribution, and cost reduction in freight transport: only the last seems relevant to policy making. For the covering abstract see ITRD E118367.
Samenvatting