Public transport systems are facing difficult times. This is not only due to tight public sector budgets, but also because of demographic change. In addition to this, the decreasing ability to bundle traffic flows is hampering the development of concepts for tomorrow's mobility. Therefore, innovative technologies, whose impact on traffic demand vastly are unknown, are increasingly being considered in order to improve service offers. Consequently, the potential effects of IT measures need to be determined right from the planning phase in order to safeguard the efficient use of earmarked funding. In a nutshell, simulations provide a solid basis for these kinds of forecasts given the scarcity of fundamental empirical data for the analysis of cause-and-effect chains and the calibration of relevant models. To remedy this deficiency the RUDY project was commissioned by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). A specially developed simulation game served as a starting point in order to provide a detailed data basis. The aim of this survey was to measure mobility behaviour under the influence of information services in realistic decision-making situations. By applying the simulation game empirical data could be acquired which then formed the basis for the development and implementation of an econometric modelling approach. Using the Ulm region as an example the impact of dynamic information services on mode choice was determined and analysed. The results of the simulation clearly indicate that increased provision of up-to-date information exerts affect the choice of transport modes. It could be shown that such a facility increases customer satisfaction and breaks up behavioural routines by stimulating willingness to consider multimodal options. The greatest potential for maintaining attractive offers in public mass transit can be anticipated by combining flexible operating forms and information technology in rural areas in particular. In addition simulating two scenarios a sensitivity analysis was carried out also in order to quantify the effects of demand provided by different ICT technologies. The microscopic modelling approach developed is a viable way to pre-estimate the effects of dynamic information services in advance and to provide an objective decision-making basis for the evaluation and prioritisation of individual IT measures. (Author/publisher)
Samenvatting