A statistical projection of traffic fatalities for the first ten months of 2008 shows a significant decline of about 10 per-cent as compared to fatalities from the same period in 2007. Preliminary data from the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) shows that vehicle miles travelled (VMT) declined by 3.5 percent for the first nine months of the year. As shown in Figures 1 and 2, declines in fatalities have been estimated for each month from January through October of 2008 al-though the extent of the decline each month has fluctuated. While fatalities declined in both January (-7%) and February (-2.5%), the most significant decline was estimated for March (-18%). Declines from April through July ranged around 10 percent before narrowing significantly in August (-1%), possibly due to a large portion of the Labour Day holiday travel period falling in August this year. While the estimate for October shows a decline of about 8 percent, it is subject to a wider statistical uncertainty as, at the time of this note, data were still being reported on crashes that occurred during October. Also shown in Figure 2 are the corresponding month-to-month declines in VMT in 2008 as compared to 2007, as estimated by FHWA. VMT data for October 2008 has not yet been reported by FHWA. (Author/publisher)
Samenvatting