The paper draws upon a research project that the authors have recently completed for UK Department for Transport (DfT), as well as their wider experience in modelling and logistical research. It considers economic and trade growth, evolution of manufacturing and service industries, and a seriesof logistics developments that, over the next 5-10 years, are likely to affect the distribution of freight traffic inter-regionally in Great Britain and beyond. The logistics development includes in particular shifts fromechelon-type distribution systems to hub-spoke networks, restructuring ofretail logistics systems, development of merge-in-transit operations and growth of reverse logistics. The paper starts the analysis by reviewing the trend in freight demand growth, and its share among the transport modes and road vehicle types.Based on the review, the paper outlines a new methodology in freight forecasting.Using practical experience of developing andvalidating freight and land use/transport models, particularly the EUNET models for the trans-Pennine corridor, and LASER3.0 for London and its surrounding regions in Southeast England, the authors discusses the possible options for strategic freight demand forecasting and its integration with passenger travel demand modelling.The requirements of policy applications, such as in the development and appraisal of freight strategies, are considered. For the covering abstract see ITRD E135582.
Samenvatting