Growing problems surrounding accessibility for freight transport in the Randstad has in the last decade led to the emergence of many new policy initiatives. For instance, the infrastructure for various modes of transport has been expanded and, at European level, the introduction of a general kilometre tariff system is being prepared. One of the policy issues being discussed also has to do with the matter of utilising railway infrastructure in a better way by introducing new, autonomous and intelligent transport systems. In this connection a new automated system for container transport has already been proposed in this journal which would operate in the Rotterdam hinterland and would be integrated into transport systems at sea terminals in the Maasvlakte and Eemhaven areas. This article goes into the market potential for the new container transport system. In so doing, the relationship between the Maasvlakte and Zevenaar with routes branching off to Rijswijk and Moerdijk has been examined. In order to gauge the potential market share a strategic freight model has been used that breaks things down into the new system, road and rail transport and inland shipping so that the tariffs and throughput times of these transport modes can be compared. At the same time the transport chain between seagoing vessel and final destination are assessed together with all possible pre and post transport movements. The model is compared to the available statistics emerging from the modal breakdown to which it seems to correspond well. A calculation of the expected future market shares reveals the following picture: (i) the automated transport system can consume a considerable volume of the present road traffic load and it is superior in direct Maasvlakte-Eemhaven connections; (ii) large inland transport systems remain dominant when it comes to links with the Antwerp and Ruhr regions, and (iii) rail transport is superior when it comes to distances above the 350 km range. The model chosen, provided that it is critically implemented, is adequate for the obtaining of indications about the market shares of competing modalities. (A)
Samenvatting