Emergency preparedness typically involves the preparation of detailed plans that can be implemented in response to a variety of possible emergencies or disruptions to the transportation system. In the past, such emergencyresponse plans ranged from small scale (e.g., response to an individual traffic accident) to large scale (e.g., hurricane evacuations) and a variety of scenarios in between. Disruptions to the transportation system can generate complex interactions and unforeseen effects as drivers divert to alternate routes which themselves may already be congested or incapable of handling the increased demand. Therefore, emergency preparedness planning can greatly benefit from the use of micro simulation models to evaluate theimpacts of natural and man-made incidents and assess the effectiveness ofvarious responses. In the event of a natural or man-made disaster, emergency preparedness plays a vital role in ensuring the safety, security, and efficiency of the transportation system. Emergency preparedness greatly depends on the understanding of the scope and magnitude of potential incidents and the significance of their disruptions to the mobility of people andgoods in the transportation system. Preparedness involves anticipating a range of emergency scenarios and developing and testing plans to respond to them. Emergency preparedness for a state or locality is often measured in terms of its ability to respond to an emergency in a timely and effective manner. In the case of emergencies that affect the transportation system, the response time is a critical factor in minimizing adverse impacts including fatalities and loss of property. This study shows how microscopic traffic simulation can be used to assist decision making for regional emergency preparedness. Details are offered on simulation model selection, datacollection, model calibration and validation, emergency scenario development and testing. The objective of each case study was two-fold. First, to offer examples of common emergencies (such as traffic accident, evacuationetc) and evaluate their impact on network performance. Second, to introduce strategies for traffic management (e.g. traffic diversion, access restriction, signal optimization to favour evacuation flow etc) and assess their potential benefit on traffic operations. The results of the first case study showed significant improvement of network performance with the traffic diversion strategy. The findings may lead to the conclusion that investment in ITS technologies that support dissemination of traffic information (such as Changeable Message Signs, Highway Advisory Radio, etc) would provide a great advantage in traffic management under emergency situations. This study shows how an evacuation could be carried out with different strategies (e.g., optimization of traffic signals, diversion strategies, and staged evacuation strategies). The third case study shows how previously prepared plans can be tested using simulation to assess their validity. Overall, the work reported in this research study demonstrates the feasibility of the simulation approach in emergency preparedness and highlights some of the challenges in the development of large scale microscopic simulation models.This paper also presented an architecture that provides for integration of modelling and simulation tools to allow a systems approach to study and analysis of emergency response. For the covering abstract see ITRD E139491.
Samenvatting