AN EMPIRICAL BAYES SOLUTION FOR THE PROBLEM CONSIDERED BY WILLIFORD AND MURDOCK. (SOLUTION TO THE PROBLEM OF ESTIMATING INDIVIDUAL DRIVER'S ACCIDENT LIABILITY.)

IN THEIR PAPER, WILLIFORD AND MURDOCK PROPOSE SEVERAL METHODS FOR ESTIMATING THE INDIVIDUAL DRIVER'S ACCIDENT LIABILITY FOR A POPULATION OF MANY DRIVERS. THE SETTING THEY DESCRIBE IS IDEALLY SUITED FOR AN EMPIRICAL BAYES APPROACH. IN THIS PAPER AN EMPIRICAL BAYES PROCEDURE IS PROPOSED AND EVALUATED. THE PROCEDURE IS SHOWN TO WORK BEST WHEN THE GROUP OF DRIVERS IS CHOSEN TO BE AS HOMOGENOUS AS POSSIBLE.