The Florida State Legislature mandated the Florida Department of Transportation perform the Conserve by Bicycle Program Study. One goal of the Program Study is to determine the energy savings that can be realized if more and safer bicycle facilities are built. (Another goal of the Study, to predict recreational use, is described in a separately submitted paper.) The energy savings depend on a mode shift from the motor vehicle mode to the bicycle mode. This paper documents the development of a model to measure the potential corridor-level mode choice resulting from the provision of new bicycle facilities and its subsequent implementation in a computational engine calculating energy savings. The research plan included a study evaluating different bicycle facility types in different built environments to determine the mode choice resulting from those facilities. Based upon data collected on these facilities, the researchers developed a method for predicting the mode choice resulting from the provision of these facilities. It must be noted that this model was created using cross sectional data; that is comparison, not true before and after data. It therefore can be said to explain current mode splits; confirmation that it can predict mode shift (or refinement to a mode shift model) will occur pending future funding of after data collection. The resulting model from this research is a multinomial logit model. The model development made use of demographic and user data from seventeen corridors with varying types of bicycle facilities: shared use lanes, bicycle lanes, shared use paths adjacent to the roadway, and independent shared use path alignments. Variables included in the model are congestion on the roadway, quality of the bicycle facility, network friendliness for bicyclists and pedestrians, individuals trip length, and population and employment density.
Samenvatting