This paper describes the transport scenarios for the OECD project on Environmental Sustainable Transport (EST) for the Netherlands for the year 2030. The EST project contains a business-as-usual scenario and three EST scenarios: (i) one scenario containing only technological changes; (ii) one scenario containing only mobility changes; and (iii) one scenario containing the "optimum" combination of technological and mobility changes. Six EST criteria have been established for the purpose of planning more sustainable transportation systems. Three criteria based on reductions (%) of the polluting components are common to the participating countries between 1990 and 2030: 80% reduction in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions; 90% reduction in nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions; and 90% reduction in volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions. Three additional EST criteria specified by the participating countries are related to particulate matter (PM) emissions, noise and land use in 2030. Only if a high increase in technological developments and/or very stringent behavioural adaptations and changes in spatial and economic structures at an international level are assumed, the EST criteria can be concluded to be met with: (1) only technological changes; (2) only mobility changes; or with (3) the combination of both technological and mobility changes. (A)
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