This report describes the Dutch transport scenarios for the OECD project on Environmental Sustainable Transport (EST). The EST project contains a business-as-usual scenario (BAU) and three EST scenarios which attain the EST criteria (i.e. a reduction of CO2 by 80%, NOx by 90%, VOC by 90%, PM10 by 90%): (i) a "high-technology" scenario containing only technological changes, (ii) a "mobility-management" scenario containing only mobility changes, (iii) a combination scenario containing a combination of technological and mobility changes. Furthermore, the report describes possible instrument packages for the implementation of EST and the social and economic impacts of EST. The main conclusions are: (1) only if a high increase in technological developments and/or very stringent behaviour adaptations and changes in spatial and economic structures at the national and international level are assumed, the EST criteria can be met, (2) if EST is to be realised, measures will have to be taken in the short term and innovative policy instruments must be developed and implemented. The implementation of the tradeable CO2 emission permit system for passenger and freight transport is crucial for the attainment of EST, (3) a timely implementation of the policy instruments for the attainment of EST means that the current policy life cycle must radically change, (4) the level of material wealth (expressed in GDP) and employment will be somewhat slower in EST compared to BAU, but several social factors will improve. Firstly, differences between societal groups in (a) travel behaviour, (b) the level of accessibility of economic and social opportunities and (c) (perceived) environmental quality will decrease. Secondly, the level of motorised transport will be strongly reduced which will improve traffic safety and reduce health problems caused by local air pollution and noise nuisance from road traffic and aviation. (A)
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