This paper describes the implementation of a Europe wide multi-modal strategic transport model (STREAMS). The model combines freight and passenger demand elements with a network representation and traffic assignment of all modes across EU15. The paper outlines the overall modelling approach and reports on the model design in addition to presenting a base year validation and the results of a reference (business as usual) recast for transport in the P.U. in the context of the TENS (Trans European Networks) programme. The model design incorporates the main causal relationships affecting the demand for transport and the detailed multi-modal approach coupled with a full representation of costs and tariffs allows a wide range of policies to be tested including the impact of differential price changes between the modes. The model has a regional economic component (based on an Input-Output approach) which forecasts the overall demand for freight movements. The demand for passenger travel is estimated using trip rates (established from European countries National Travel Surveys) applied to highly dissaggregated population groups (in terms of socioeconomic and car ownership data). All trips are incorporated in the modelling structure using a dummy network to accommodate the large number of intra-zonal trips. The model carries out modal split and assigns the modal traffic into a simulated, multi-modal transport network. The paper reports and discusses the main results of the STREAMS project (now completed). This includes forecasts of the overall demand for transport by mode by European country and an indication of the likely network loading associated with this demand for transport.
Samenvatting