Recent research has shown that the number of teens getting licensed has been on the decline. Studies by Sivak and Schoettle (2011, 2012a) found that in 2010, only 28 percent of 16 year-olds had a driver’s license, down from 31 percent in 2008 and 46 percent in 1983. Licensed 17 year-olds were down to 46 percent in 2010 from 50 percent in 2008 and 69 percent in 1983. These results are obtained from annual state-by-state counts of driver licenses by age provided by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). However, examination of the data reveals large year-to-year fluctuations in a number of states in licensed driver counts for 16 year-olds, the minimum age of licensure in most states (Foss, 2013; Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, 2006). Cross-state differences reflect in part differences in how licensed drivers are defied, although the nature and extent of these differences are unknown. Within-state differences over time cannot be explained by fluctuations in population or changes in state licensing laws. Another study by Davis et al. (2012) obtained similar results that young people are driving fewer miles and fewer are getting licensed. However, this study also relied on the flawed FHWA licensure data. Due to limitations with the FHWA data, Shults and Williams (2013) used data from annual surveys of high school students (Bachman et al., 2011) in order to estimate licensure and driving rates amongst high school seniors from 1996-2010. Their results confirmed that licensure rates for teenagers have declined and that fewer high school seniors are routinely driving. They also found that much of the decline has occurred since 2006. However, their data are based on self-administered surveys which have potential limitations as well (Bachman et al., 2006 and Fan et al., 2006). These limitations highlight the importance of this new study using independent data to corroborate the recent trends observed in teen licensure. The results of these studies have led to much speculation as to the nature of the cause of the decline in teen licensure. Some media reports suggest the rise of social media, smartphones, and the internet as the primary reason. Thy claim that teens are less interested in driving, instead turning to Facebook or Twitter to interact with friends. University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute research professor Michael Sivak, postulated that, “It is possible that the availability of virtual contact through electronic means reduces the need for actual contact among young people” (Gorzelany, 2012). Further research by Sivak and Schoettle (2012b) found that a higher proportion of internet users were associated with a lower licensure rate in a regression analysis on young drivers in 15 countries. However, in a more recent survey by Schoettle and Sivak (2013), only 3 percent of 18-19 year-olds chose “Able to communicate and/or conduct business online instead” as their main reason for not currently having a driver’s license. The authors speculated that high internet usage may be a consequence, instead of a cause, of not having a driver’s license and being readily able to drive. The top primary reason was “Too busy or not enough time to get a driver’s license,” with 38 percent of 18-19 year-olds choosing this response. Second on the list was “Owning and maintaining a vehicle is too expensive,” chosen by 17 percent of the respondents as the primary reason. Similar surveys done by the Allstate Foundation (Williams, 2011) and the AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety (Tefft et al., 2013) found that teens wait to get licensed primarily for practical or economic reasons. These results are consistent with other reports positing that it is the economy, not a preference for smartphones or other technology, that is keeping young people from driving. General Motors Company’s chief economist Mustafa Mohaterem said “I don’t see any evidence that the young people are losing interest in cars.” Instead the recession, high teen unemployment, and rising costs of owning and driving a car are believed to be driving this trend (Burden et al., 2013). According to AAA’s yearly publication, Your Driving Costs, the composite average cost per mile of driving a sedan 10,000 miles was $0.62 in 2006. By 2012, this cost had risen to $0.77 per mile, an increase of more than 24 percent (AAA, 2006, 2012). With teenage unemployment reaching as high as 26 percent in 2010, it may be that teenagers still want to drive and own cars, but they just cannot afford it. Stricter licensing laws also have made the process of obtaining a license more difficult in addition to delaying the minimum age of full licensure in some states. Some teens say they are waiting until they are 18 to get a license in order to avoid the additional restrictions and costs imposed by graduated driver licensing laws (Halsey, 2013). Also many states require driver education for license applicants younger than 18 even though it is not always available in the public school system. The cost of private driver education programs may provide a disincentive for early licensing. However, the AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety survey found “little evidence that GDL was itself a major reason or motivator for delaying licensure.” Thy observed that many teens not licensed before age 18 were still not licensed when they were 19 or 20, which suggests that most were not simply waiting out the GDL restrictions. Davis et al. (2012) suggest a host of reasons for the decline including “higher gas prices, new licensing laws, improvements in technology that support alternative transportation, and changes in Generation Y’s values and preferences.” Thy found that the recession played a role in reducing the amount of miles driven by young people, but suggested that the trend towards reduced driving likely will persist after the economy rebounds due to fundamental shift in young peoples’ preferences towards protecting the environment and public transportation. These prior studies all have focused on the number of licensed teens or vehicle-miles travelled. In addition, the data used in these studies have serious potential flaws or limitations. The purpose of this Highway Loss Data Institute (HLDI) bulletin is to investigate how these recent trends have affected the number of insured teen drivers and to examine the relationship between the level of insured teen drivers with the unemployment rate and graduated driver licensing laws. (Author/publisher)
Samenvatting