This paper updates the author's previous statistical analyses of fatal train accidents on the national railway system of Great Britain, and consolidates all data and methodological changes to the end of 1999. The paper estimates trends in accidents and fatalities over the period 1967-1999, and projects these to 2000-2024. It is estimated that the mean frequency of fatal accidents in 1999 was about 1.2 per year, of which about half were due to signals passed at danger protecting conflicting movements, and most of the rest were non-ATP-preventable. It is projected that there would be a mean of 26 fatal accidents in 2000-2024 from all causes without the Train Protection and Warning System (TPWS); this is reduced to about 14 by TPWS. The mean number of fatalities per accident is estimated to be about 3.5 after all Mark 1 rolling stock has been withdrawn, and very slightly higher until then. (A)
Samenvatting