This work examines crash and safety statistics from Dubai in an attempt to identify factors responsible for making its population at greater risk of crashes compared to more developed countries. Fatality/injury data used in the analysis mainly comes from Dubai police reports and other relevant international sources. Groups of the population are identified according to associated risk and exposure factors. Influence and strength of the most common risk factors are quantified using relative risk, Lorenz curve, and the Gini index. Further analysis used logit modelling, and possible predictors from Dubai police reports, to estimate probability and odds ratios associated with drivers deemed responsible for causing traffic accidents. Traffic fatality risk was found to be higher in Dubai, compared to some developed nations, and to vary considerably between different classes of road users and groups of the resident population. The likelihood of a driver causing an accident is considerably higher for those driving goods vehicles, but is also associated with other factors. (Author/publisher)
Samenvatting