This paper presents and discusses forecasts of bus travel by passengers holding concessionary tickets in Greater Manchester, England. In 1993, 35% of these passengers were aged 5 to 15, and 51% were aged at least 60. Demographic trends in these figures are tabulated. Bus trip rates are tabulated for these groups, together with their variations with the level of household car ownership, using data collected in the 1991 Greater Manchester Transportation Study. Forecasts of daily concessionary trips are made for these groups for the Years 2001 and 2011, for assumed low and high economic growth. Forecasts were made in the following way. Estimates were made of the numbers of households in Greater Manchester with 0, 1 and more than 1 cars. Forecasts of average levels of car ownership were derived from national UK car ownership forecasts, but assuming local lags of two and one Years for the years 2001 and 2011, respectively. Numbers of concessionaires of a given type, living in a household with a given level of car ownership, were then forecast, using these figures. The total number of bus trips for a given type of concessionaire was then forecast. The results of the forecasts are tabulated, and some qualifications are made about them.
Samenvatting