This paper is based on the Austroads Guide Forecasting Demand for Bicycle Facilities. There are a number of methods that are available to those with an interest in demand modelling. These can be categorised into aggregate and disaggregate methods. Generally speaking the aggregate methods are simpler to carry out but do not have a solid theoretical basis. Without a solid theoretical grounding it is arguably more dangerous to produce forecasts. The disaggregate methods generally involve a greater degree of modelling sophistication and specialised data collection but have the potential to provide greater insights into the systemic and behavioural factors that underlie changes in demand. This paper examines the questions that modelling can address, the contexts in which it can be used, the advantages of modelling as well as some of its limitations. (Author/publisher) For the covering entry of this conference, please see ITRD abstract no. E208431.
Samenvatting