This paper summarises calculations aimed at estimating the trends in the UK in the numbers of older drivers by sex and age group over the next twenty years, the number of accidents in which they will be involved, and the numbers of casualties resulting. Two severities are considered: fatal and serious combined; and slight accidents. The data required include population data for the past, population predictions for the future, data giving numbers or proportions of currently licensed drivers, and data relating to accidents and casualties. To predict accident rates for groups of drivers, it is essential to consider the fact that different groups have different levels of exposure to risk of accident. The predictions of accident involvement range from a decline of four per cent per year for the younger male groups to an increase of five to nine per cent for groups of older female drivers. The calculations are felt to show a good level of accuracy. For the covering abstract see ITRD E116025.
Samenvatting