Samenvatting
The paper investigates the use of a first-order and one-variable grey model, GM, to model and forecast the trend of the reduction of traffic accident severity through strategic scenarios, concerning application of driving assistance systems and physical infrastructure redesign. Based on modelling the limited available data of the effects of the infrastructure redesign programme in the Netherlands (during 1998-2002), forecast the trend of fatalities and hospitalisations for the years 2003 until 2010 was forecasted. By using cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) the result is compared with other scenarios, i.e. to implement driving assistance system by market-pull and policy-push. For the covering abstract see ITRD E134653.