Previous forecasts of numbers of vehicles and amounts of traffic in Great Britain are revised to take account of data for 1972, and for 1973 as available. Where possible account is also taken of the energy supply and general economic situation early in 1974, and alternative low and high forecasts allowing for a range of future positions for these factors are also given. The middle forecasts suggest little growth in vehicles or traffic between 1972 and 1975. The new forecasts for later years differ little from those issued in 1973. They indicate that the number of vehicles may rise from 17 million in 1973 to about 29 million by the year 2000, 25 million of them cars. Traffic volumes may increase by about 90 per cent over the same period. The low alternative forecasts assume a low rate of growth of national income and substantial fuel price increases. This gives forecasts up to 2 million vehicles lower and traffic volumes increasing by only 70 to 80 per cent by 2000. The high forecasts, based on rapid economic growth and stable fuel prices, are little higher than the middle ones. These forecasts are subject to considerable uncertainty, resulting from various assumptions on such matters as the ultimate saturation level of car ownership and the response to changing price levels. Future traffic levels are also subject to possible changes in government policies, for instance on restraint and road provision, for which no proper allowance can be made in this report. (Author/publisher)
Samenvatting