This report covers a framework for prospective traffic safety evaluaton, which is aimed at ensuring that there is proper consideration for the safety effect of the new DRIVE systems at the stages of product development before trial implementation. A set of companion reports (HOPES (Horizontal Project for the Evaluation of Safety) Deliverables 7A and 7B, IRRD E100468 and E100469) cover retrospective traffic safety evaluation, which looks at the field trial stage of implementation. The report covers the evidence for "behavioural adaptation" by drivers and other road users. This evidence indicates that there may be unintended behavioural changes following any alteration to the traffic system. It then goes on to apply a standard set of techniques to three different systems which are quite common in DRIVE, namely dynamic route guidance, variable message signs and intelligent cruise control. In each case the system is described, and hypotheses developed about potential traffic safety effects. The hypotheses development is informed by previous research on Advanced Transport Telematics (ATT) systems and by knowledge of driver behaviour and the traffic system. This procedure provides case studies of how the tools for prospective traffic safety analysis might be applied. The tools themselves are described briefly in the main text. More detailed descriptions of the tools, of the scope for applying them, and of their advantages and shortcomings are provided in the appendices. Each tool description is there accompanied by a full set of references to the literature. (Author/publisher)
Samenvatting