Freight supply and demand trends have followed a separate growth path to real gross domestic product (GDP) since the 1990s. Freight transport elasticities in Germany for different modes since the 1970s are discussed. There have been marked increases in road haulage and short sea shipping compared with other modes. The only countries where rail freight has increased compared with road haulage are Austria and Switzerland. Rail freight share is steadily decreasing in the 2004 EU accession countries. Reasons why it is unlikely that EU policy to prevent the trend in modal split will be achieved by 2010 are presented. Railways and waterways are less able to meet logistical requirements. Increasing road freight is not considered compatible with sustainable development. EURO norms should progressively reduce emissions from diesel engines but total emissions will still rise because of the predicted significant increase in the road freight sector. It is considered that the different modes could reduce their energy consumption by making use of technological improvements and improve their overall efficiency as a means of transport. The railways need to develop their offer of services and improve their quality. Opportunities for intermodal transport could be improved by using subsidies to promote the carriage of goods by rail, to reduce road freight and to reduce congestion caused by lorries. It is considered that freight terminal handling processes require improvement, shunting operations need to be kept to an absolute minimum, train capacity utilisation should be increased, and journey time and punctuality improved. The role and influence of transport poicy in securing a sustainable modal split is discussed. For a covering abstract for this conference see ITRD E128114.
Samenvatting