This General Accounting Office (GAO) study had the following three objectives: (1) to formulate a predictive model specifying hypothetical relationships between safety and a set of conditions in the trucking industry; (2) to assess the availability and quality of federal data required to test the model; and (3) to use available data, to the extent possible, to develop a set of indicators that would predict safety problems in the freight-trucking industry. GAO's preliminary findings, using data on 537 carriers drawn from both the Department of Transportation (DOT) and the Interstate Commerce Commission, are that seven financial ratios show promise as predictors of safety problems in the interstate trucking industry. For example, three measures of profitability - return on equity, operating ratio, and net profit margin - were associated with subsequent safety problems as measured by accident rates. The data agreed with GAO's model for five of seven financial ratios: Firms in the weakest financial position had the highest subsequent accident rates. GAO also used a number of other factors to predict safety outcomes, including the following. First, the smallest carriers, as a group, had an accident rate that exceeded the total group's rate by 20%. Second, firms operating closer to a broker model - that is, those that rely on leased equipment and/or drivers to move freight - had a group accident rate 15 to 21% above the total group's rate. With regard to two of the submodels (driver quality and compliance), driver's age, years of experience, and compensation were all good predictors of safety problems. GAO's evidence is generally consistent with the model's hypotheses since younger, less experienced drivers and lower paid company drivers posed greater-than-average accident risks. GAO's study thus demonstrates the potential for developing preventive strategies geared to differences among carriers and drivers, and it also suggests the importance of monitoring by DOT of the variations in carrier accident rates in order to have a sound basis for developing those preventive strategies. (A)
Samenvatting