This report summarises the results of a Delphi survey, conducted as part of the TRILOG project which was funded by the European Commission. 129 logistics specialists participated in the survey, whose objective was to produce medium-range forecasts for a broad range of logistical and supply chain variables, relating mainly to: (1) geographical patterns of production and warehousing; (2) sourcing of supplies; (3) order fulfilment; (4) retail distribution of finished products; (5) inventory levels; (6) freight transport; (7) outsourcing and third-party logistics; (8) information technology and e-commerce; and (9) employment. The following aspects of freight transport were considered: freight traffic levels, freight model split and tariffs, environmental taxation, and other government measures to promote modal shift. The report begins with a discussion and critique of various types of Delphi method, which sends questionnaires to a panel of experts, and uses an iterative process where respondents can revise their earlier answers in the light of views expressed by the panel as a whole. It then outlines some previous Delphi surveys of logistics trends, the methodology used by TRILOG, and the composition of its sample. It presents the survey results in some detail; they provide a broad but superifical projection of future logistics trends in Europe.
Samenvatting