Using published data, a study was made of changes in road accident rates over the ten year period 1961-71 in a number of developing countries. It was found that in the majority of countries there was a continuing downward trend in fatality and injury rates per licensed vehicle. Kenya, Jamaica, Zambia, Malawi and Nigeria are notable exceptions and detailed road accident data were used to try to determine underlying factors associated with the increases in fatality and injury rates per licensed vehicle in these countries. It was found that increases in fatality rates were related to increasing ownership of two-wheeled motor vehicles. Unlike developed countries, pedestrian accident rates per licensed vehicle did not decrease over time in these countries. The numbers of casualties per accident showed a considerable increase in Kenya between 1968 and 1972 as did the proportion of accidents occurring at night. In 28 developing countries for which data were available in 1968 and 1971, fatalities per licensed vehicle were found to be related to vehicle ownership levels, the higher the vehicle ownership level, the lower the fatality rate. Comparisons were made of regression equations derived for the years 1968 and 1971 and it was found that the equation for 1971 indicated greater fatalities per licensed vehicle than that for 1968 for similar values of vehicle ownership. (Author/publisher)
Samenvatting