The development of intelligent vehicle-highway systems (ivhs) inthe united states is characterized by a high level of uncertainty regarding system development and social response. Although there appears to be much interest and support for pursuing this new approach for increasing the capacity, efficiency, and safety of road transportation, it is difficult to say at this point what set of functions, technologies, standards, and institutional arrangements will eventually evolve into an accepted architecture for ivhs in the united states. There is uncertainty about the financing of system development, the outcome of competing systems and desired functions, consumer acceptance of the concepts and products, and about almost every aspect of the development of ivhs. This paper presents the results from a recent survey that summarizes the opinions of experts in a range of fields related to ivhs. The delphi forecasting methodology was used togenerate a consensus on predicted market penetration for various ivhs including motorist information, vehicle navigation, vehicle location and identification, route guidance, automatic tolls and road pricing, collision avoidance and warning, speed and headway keeping, automated highways, and automated guideway systems. In this paper the system is explained, the market forecasts are presented, related institutional and technical barriers are identified, and the results ofthe survey are compared with similar surveys conducted in europe and the united states. This paper appears in transportation research record no. 1305, Finance, planning, programming, economic analysis, and land development 1991.
Samenvatting