The future of passenger trains and buses in North America.

Since the majority of the present rail service is already duplicated or could be replaced by faster, more frequent, cheaper, more energy efficient and commercially viable, unsubsidized and profitable buses, it is suggested that the majority of passenger rail routes should be discontinued with the buses and airlines providing all public transportation. Subsidization of a small number of new bus routes, where traffic volume is low but the service socially desirable, would have to be attended to. The remainder of rail routes, on which roads are not available, would have to be studied in detail to determine how each should be rationalized and subsidized. In the long-term, passenger rail policy in North America must be concerned with the potential of modern, fast trains, capable of competing with the car, the bus, and on short trips with the aeroplane. A start in this direction has been already made in the United States, with the upgrading of the North-East corridor for 120 mph operations. In Canada at present there are no plans to introduce modern, fast passenger rail, but several studies have shown that in the Windsor-Quebec corridor, 100 mph plus passenger rail operations would be economically viable. They would attract sufficient traffic to pay for the capital outlays required. The benefits of fast, electric passenger rail will continue to grow as traffic and oil prices augment. The past two decades have witnessed a renaissance of passenger rail in Europe and Japan, In terms of service, this has meant a steady increase in speed over continually expanding mileage. Start-to-stop runs at over 100 mph are operated in Japan, Great Britain and France. The minimum speed on the new Paris-Lyon line, to be opened in the early 1980s, will be 135 mph. A maximum speed of 160 mph is planned. Unlike in Europe, in the United States and Canada passenger rail has been an unresolved transportation dilemma since the end of World War II. The North American society, the most modern of all, has been unable to cope with the modernization of the oldest mode of mechanical land transport. (A)