Samenvatting
This article takes a pragmatic look at the business and/or art of prediction in the area of traffic and safety. The author offers the following principles to keep in mind when considering a prediction: (1) Predictions should be embedded in historical perspective; (2) Beware of naive extrapolation; (3) Beware of concealing uncertainty behind a smoke-screen of complexity; and (4) Large feedback mechanisms may invalidate simplistic predictions.