How an individual assesses the uncertain outcome of a travel choice is often determined in large part by its contrast with a ‘reference point’. It was generally observed that people treat gains and losses differently. This observed choice behavior, called loss aversion, refers to the fact that people tend to be more sensitive to decreases in their wealth than to increases. In recent studies, reference-dependent models were applied to travel choice modeling. In this paper we argue that reference-dependent preferences in a travel choice context should be based on the perception of reference values, rather than their measurement. A basic difference between perceptions and measurements is, in general, that measurements are crisp whereas perceptions are fuzzy. We build on the essential intuitions in Kahneman and Tversky’s prospect theory and subsequent models of reference dependence, and extend the concept of reference point to a fuzzy set of referencevalues, in order address the vague perception of reference travel times travelers have. We introduce the concept of a fuzzy rather than crisp representation of travel choice outcomes as ‘gains’ and ‘losses'. Potential applications of this model are in the development of travel behavior models with higher predictive values, in gathering better understanding of travelers’ responses to information, and in the development of techniques to influence travelers’ choices.
Samenvatting