This paper presents a survey of the literature on the effects of climate change and weather conditions on the transport sector. The authors focus on the consequences of climate change for disruptions on infrastructures and their potential consequences for a modal shift in passenger and freight transport. As they stand, the uncertainty with respect to changes in weather patterns but especially with respect to the impact of these changes on transport makes it difficult to assess the impact of climate change on transport. Particularly problematic is the quantification of the effects and the fact that both positive and negative consequences of changes in weather exist at the same time, often making the net effect ambiguous. In particular in the field of traffic safety we observe several feedbacks of increases in the generalised costs of transport. With respect to freight transport, especially natural waterways appear to be rather sensitive to climate change. The likely increase in frequency of low water levels may be expected to lead to substantial cost increases in the inland navigation sector. Consequences in terms of competitive position, however, appear to be small. (Author/publisher)
Samenvatting