To identify advantageous transport policies and strategies, a review of factors which may reshape the Australian national transport task in the future was undertaken. This generated some alternatives to the prevailing assumptions and perceptions about expected future conditions. Exponential growth in global population presents one key influence on the future; discontinuous change of some sort (collapse or stability) is likely, either voluntary or crisis-induced. The implications of potentially rapid change of this type are considered. In the transport sector, based on the past cycle of growth, saturation and decay of previous technologies, there are indications that a new form of transport infrastructure could be expected early in the next century. Given such a development, transport can contribute in the short term to a reduction in unsustainability and in the longer term to an alignment of transport sustainability with the wider goal of a sustainable economy. A paradigm shift in personal beliefs and social values would be needed to enable these wider changes. Some strategic conclusions about implications of this scenario for transport-related policy are summarised. (a).
Samenvatting