Demographic changes in the Western society will cause an increase of the number of elderly drivers in the next decades. According to a prognosis of Statistics Netherlands (CBS), the proportion of the 65 year olds and older will increase more rapidly after 2010 and reach 25% of the whole population in 2040 (CBS, 2006). In absolute numbers this will amount to more than 4 million people of the age of 65 and above in the Netherlands. CBS expects that the number of people older than 75 will have grown to 1.3 million in 2020, and in 2040 will have reached more than 2.2 million. By 2060, the median age of the European population is projected to be more than 7 years higher than today and the number of people aged 65 or more is expected to represent 30% of the population as opposed to 17 % today (Eurostat, 2008; European Commission, 2008). Since 1950, the proportion of older persons has been rising steadily, passing from 8 per cent in 1950 to 11 per cent in 2009, and is expected to reach 22 per cent in 2050 (United Nations, 2009). It is also relevant to mention that the population of older persons itself is ageing, i.e. among those aged 60 years or over, the fastest growing population is that of the oldest-old, that is, those aged 80 years or over (United Nations, 2009). Although above a certain age people generally travel less than at younger ages, nowadays older people tend to travel more than their parents did before (European Commission, 2009). This tendency is expected to continue, being reinforced by improved health, more travelling options and better foreign language skills. Thus, an ageing society will place more emphasis on the provision of transport services involving a high level of perceived security and reliability, and featuring appropriate solutions for users with reduced mobility. These improvements in health and welfare have made possible that more elderly are able to participate fully in normal life activities (Mercier et al., 1994). Higher activity levels have led to increased ownership and use of motor vehicles and thus longer retention of driver licenses. In the early 1950s, about 40 percent of all men over 70 held driver licenses, increasing to almost 90 percent by 1984 (Rosembloom, 1988). Although women’s licensing rates have traditionally lagged behind those of men, the percentage increase for women has been about the same as for men. As the number of older people increases over the next 20 years, most will have driving licenses and access to cars and will prefer driving as their primary means of transport (OECD, 2001). For older people in good health, the freedom to travel where and when desired, in relative comfort, is extremely important to quality of life. As a consequence of all these facts, as the population continues to age, with potentially more seniors retaining their license, challenges related to elderly drivers will likely become more relevant. In addition, elderly drivers have a higher than average death rate in traffic and are involved in a higher proportion of accidents (SWOV, 2008), so that the acknowledged demographic development has important implications for traffic safety. The road safety of older road users is to a large extent determined by two factors: functional limitations and physical vulnerability. Specifically, functional limitations can increase crash risk, whereas a higher physical vulnerability increases injury severity. Moreover, a third reason for the high fatality rate of older adults is related to their low annual mileage since, in general, drivers travelling fewer kilometres have increased crash rates per kilometre compared to those driving more kilometres. Also, drivers who have a medical condition are likely to be more fragile than other older drivers and will also drive less frequently or at least drive shorter distances. This report compiles relevant results from the literature in three main areas: Older driver’s interaction with cars and in-vehicle technology, Older driver’s interaction with infrastructure and Screening and assessment of older drivers regarding fitness-to-drive. With the findings presented in each of these areas, a reference to the driving needs of older people is made, covering an analysis of the older people profiles in relation to driving and including the results of a workshop with experts held in the framework of the GOAL project. Main conclusions are outlined at the end, providing some recommendations for a safety and mobility improvement of older drivers, also considering future needs of research. These conclusions would fit in the final GOAL Action Plan to be delivered at the end of the GOAL project. (Author/publisher)
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