In the coming decades European Community (EC) will experience a drastic change in the proportion of the aged population. New needs and new opportunities will emerge, and adequate policy actions will be required in order to maintain and possibly improve the mobility level of older people. The GOAL project aims to develop an action plan intended to fill research and knowledge gaps. The present documents reports the work of the consortium in the identification of alternatives to travel, which will be increasingly relevant to future older people, and in the development of future mobility scenarios. The scenarios (plausible mobility systems in the future) will be used to identify in a systematic way future user needs and research gaps. The alternatives to travel were subdivided in two broad categories, based on the motivation of the trip: healthcare and purchase-related, and social and leisure. Within each category specific travel needs were identified and consequently a set of possible solutions: ealternatives and home support for the former category; personal communication, social media, online games, and online rental services for the latter one. Each set of alternatives to travel was presented and discussed. A final assessment of the alternatives was performed for each of the GOAL profiles (defined in WP2 of this project) against the satisfaction of a travel need. The scenario analysis was performed with the aim to define mobility scenarios to 2030 and 2050, and correspondingly to have projections of the GOAL profiles to the same time. The activity was organized in the form of meta-scenario analysis, thus exploiting previous scenario studies and roadmap documents, available on mobility and related technical fields. The work included the following steps: 1) literature review; 2) identification of macro-factors capable to influence future mobility of older people profiles; 3) identification of micro-factors, for each of the macro factors, based on the results of the literature review; 4) expert panel, comprised of both internal consortium experts and external experts in the field of older people mobility; 5) identification of the scenarios and their description. The expert panel reviewed the preliminary work and established the relations of the micro factors vs. mobility systems, and the micro factors vs. users’ needs. The importance and uncertainty of the micro-factors (i.e. likelihood of impact of the micro factor on the mobility systems or user needs) was used to identify the scenario dimensions: energy & environment, technology of transport, economy and mobility attitude. Out of the 16 possible scenarios, the most relevant are described in this deliverable. The older people profiles, initially identified within WP2 based on present data, were projected into the future using both the results of the expert panel and the available documents of demographic projections. A gap analysis of the older people profiles, projected to 2030 and 2050, against the mobility scenarios, identified lists of actions to maintain or to improve the mobility of older people in all the forecasted future conditions. (Author/publisher)
Samenvatting