Graduated Licensing Program enhancements (GLPe) were implemented in October 2003. All drivers and motorcycle riders. Using crash rates from comparison groups of drivers who entered GLP between 1999 and 2001, the crash incident counts expected had GLPe not been introduced were estimated and compared to the actual crash counts observed for drivers who entered GLPe between 2004 and 2006. To estimate the possible effects of factors other than GLPe on crash rates, comparison groups of experienced (non-new) drivers were also used in the analysis. GLPe driver crash rates were adjusted to take into account such external factors. who obtained a Class 7 or 8 learner (“L”) or novice (“N”) licence on or after October 6, 2003 became subject to the new GLPe conditions. The benefits attributable to GLPe were estimated for two groups of drivers: 1) new drivers who obtained their first “L” licence in 2004, 2005, or 2006 and would be subject to all of the GLPe conditions as they progressed through the learner and novice stages of licensure, and 2) transitional novice drivers who obtained their first “N” licence in 2004, 2005, or 2006 but who had completed their learner stage either out-of-province or in the original GLP. To estimate crash claims savings, analyses were undertaken to assess whether the introduction of GLPe might have affected the incurred costs of new driver and novice driver claims. Using “piecewise” linear regression methods to test for changes in the slope and height of the fitted trend line before and after the implementation of GLPe no evidence of a GLPe effect on costs was found. Consequently, actual incident costs were used in the calculation of GLPe claims savings. One exception was for fatal crashes. Due to the small number of such incidents in the new driver groups, fatal crash costs were found to vary substantially from year to year — although they were generally similar to those of non-new drivers. Consequently, to smooth out the variability, an average new driver fatal crash cost was computed using the fatal crash incidents of all new driver and non-new drivers. Between January 1, 2004 and December 31, 2006, there were 44,357 crash incidents involving at least one new or transitional GLPe driver. Had GLPe not been implemented, an estimated 61,893 incidents involving at least one new or transitional driver would have been expected to occur. Thus, in total, during the first three calendar years after GLPe implementation there were 17,536 (28%) fewer crash incidents involving a GLPe driver than would have been expected had GLPe not been implemented: * 31 fewer fatal crash incidents involving new or transitional novice drivers; * 4,137 fewer Injury crash incidents involving new or transitional novice drivers; and * 13,368 fewer Material Damage Only crash incidents involving new or transitional novice drivers. The associated claims savings attributed to GLPe are estimated conservatively at $172 Million ($26 Million in 2004, $62 Million in 2005, and $84 Million in 2006). All of the crash incident counts and claims costs used in the analysis were current as of October 31, 2008, and ultimated using loss development factors at October 31, 2008. (Author/publisher) For the complete report, see http://icbc.com/driver-licensing/Getting-licensed/glp-enhance.pdf
Samenvatting