The model developed in this research is an extension of the modified gravity model. The specific zone to zone adjustment factor is introduced into the model in order to fit the model to the present pattern of trip distribution perfectly. The characteristics of the adjustment factor are analyzed by using the traffic data of nagoya city in three years (in 1960, 1965 and 1970). The analysis of the change, with time, of the adjustment factor shows that the values of the factors distribute around 1.00 and tend to 1.00 with time where the development of the urban area is progressive. This finding is used in forecasting the adjustment factor. A test of model fitness was carried out using the data of work and school trips in nagoya city in 1960, 1965 and 1970. The results of the test show the validity of the model as a forecasting tool. The model described is applicable to estimating traffic volume of each mode of transport, of each purpose and of each time of day. (a) for the covering abstract of the symposium please see irrd abstract no. 224453.
Samenvatting