In this paper a time allocation model is used to forecast long-term developments in mobility growth in the Netherlands. The model describes activity patterns based on subpopulation characteristics, time budgets and changing behavioural aspects. Three scenarios are constructed for the future year 2015: a reference scenario, and two extreme scenarios. Total travel time over the population is expected to increase between 9% and 34% compared to the situation in the base year 1990. Three velocity scenarios are added in order to transform the estimates in travel distances. The main result is that the estimated maximum increase in travel distance over the population is significantly less than earlier predictions. The idea is supported that boundaries on mobility growth due to limiting impacts of time budgets might be reached on the long run. (A)
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