During the last decade, rapid changes have occurred in the retail economyof North America epitomised by the pace and location of development, and a functional transformation of retailing. Despite these changes, few studies have examined the space-time dynamics of retailing with a view to understanding the role of retail in urban growth management. Using data from alongitudinal database of Canadian commercial activity, this study explores spatiotemporal trends in retail development within the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) during the period 1996 to 2005. The paper begins with an overview of the historic periods of retail development in Canada. Attention thenturns to regional analyses focused on the spatial evolution of retail structure across the GTA. Weighted bivariate Gaussian kernel estimation and centrographic statistics are used to describe spatial patterns of retailing classified by opening year and format. Retail format categories include: (1) community and neighborhood convenience, (2) enclosed regional and super regional malls, and (3) power centers. The results highlight the recent wave of power retail development that has swept across the GTA. These auto-dependent power centers have been built predominantly in areas of newresidential growth located at the fringes of the GTA. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of the research findings for the development of models designed to simulate urban growth and change. The conclusions also explore the planning and policy gap between the emerging retail reality and smart growth strategies that have overlooked the role and potential impact of retail planning and development on metropolitan regions.
Samenvatting