Hazardous materials transport risk estimation under conditions of limited data availability.

This paper describes alternative approaches to hazardous materials transport risk estimation under conditions of limited data availability, including consideration of statistical interference, fault/event tree modeling, analytical and simulation techniques, subjective estimation, and Bayesian analysis. The hazardous materials transport problem is examined in terms of the feasibility of applying these techniques. Concern is raised over the likelihood of different approaches resulting in conflicting risk estimates, and a procedure for mediating these conflicts is discussed. (A)