Based on the current literature, it was examined under which conditions a positive effect on road safety could be anticipated, when additional penalties are imposed on road users who have been repeatedly apprehended. It is concluded that there are no indications that a lasting deterrent effect can be expected from those penalty increases which are associated with a reasonable small risk of detection, if this is not enhanced. A penalty increase could have a deterrent effect, however, if it is combined with a reasonably high subjective risk of being caught. It is anticipated that in a number of cases, an increased penalty associated with a point demerit system will be less effective in reducing offences. The point system can also be used as a means of selection. The question, however, is to what degree drivers can be identified who are likely to be involved in an accident in the future. A comparison between the anticipated results based on a general deterrent effect and those based on the selection and treatment of repeat offenders shows that: (1) general deterrence will offer the greatest contribution to road safety; and (2) only a very limited gain can be expected on the basis of the selection and treatment of repeat offenders.
Samenvatting