This paper studies the influence of built environment in the vicinity of an intersection on pedestrian activity and collision frequency. In doing so, a two-equation model to predict pedestrian activity and collision occurrence is formulated and validated using data from 509 signalized intersections in the City of Montreal. The applicability of this modeling frameworkis illustrated through an elasticity analysis and a model validation study. Among other results, it was found that the built environment (BE) in the proximity of an intersection has a powerful association with pedestrian activity but a small direct effect on collision frequency. That is, the impact of BE is mainly mediated through pedestrian activity and traffic volume. In accordance with previous studies, pedestrian activity and traffic volume are the main determinants of pedestrian collision frequency at signalized intersections. Our analysis illustrates how urban policies aiming toincrease population density, transit offer and road network connectivity may have important health and safety benefits by encouraging pedestrian activity. In addition, our results show that a reduction of 30% in the traffic volume in each of the studied intersections would greatly reduce the average risk of pedestrian collision (-50%) and the total number of injured pedestrians (-35%) in the area under analysis. Arterials and urban highways seem to have a double negative effect on pedestrian safety: major roads are negatively related with pedestrian activity and positively associated with traffic volume. Those results support the idea of retrofitting major urban roads into more complete streets.
Samenvatting