Identification of sites for road accident remedial work by Bayesian statistical methods : an example of uncertain inference.

Auteur(s)
Heydecker, B.G. & Wu, J.
Jaar
Samenvatting

Road accident remedial work can be effected in many cases by implementing low cost engineering measures. These are intended to restore the safety performance of sites to which they are applied to prevailing levels according to their kind, traffic flows and design. This approach is therefore appropriate to sites where the mean accident frequency exceeds a standard value for that site. In this paper, the authors present several analyses that provide quantitative but uncertain indications of which sites should be considered for this kind of treatment according to their accident record. The authors describe four measures that are informative in this respect - the count of accidents, an estimate of the mean accident frequency, the amount by which this estimate exceeds a standard value, and the probability that is does so . The authors illustrate the use of these analyses by applying them to a dataset of accident records of priority controlled road junctions and compare the results of using the different measures. (A)

Publicatie

Bibliotheeknummer
C 30331 [electronic version only]
Uitgave

Published in Advances in Engineering Software, Vol. 32 (2001), p. 859-869, 11 ref.

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